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Brescia 3–1 Spal

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, May 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia win36%2.77
Spal win33%3.10
Draw31%3.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brescia +051%1.91
Spal +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.80
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia
27'⚽Birkir Bjarnason · Brescia
61'🟨Jacopo Segre · Spal
63'⚽Florian Ayé · Brescia
65'⚽Gabriel Strefezza · Spal
76'🟨Andrea Cistana · Brescia
79'⚽Filip Jagiełło · Brescia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots13
7On target2
5Corners5
14Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBresciaSpal
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
box share (last 5)0.670.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Mario Rigamonti
coach days151.0061.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.48
elo1463.541467.10
elo momentum (last 5)-6.6812.48
eye test v1-0.47-0.94
eye trend v1-0.050.07
first sub minute (last 10)57.6052.20
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.790.72
league points44.0054.00
league rank12.007.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2078.20
possession avg (last 5)58.8051.60
rest days14.0014.71
scorer concentration0.240.25
season ppg1.261.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.00-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.00
skill v10.910.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.20
squad age25.8827.97
state index-0.280.02
sterile dominance v11.170.42
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60