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Venezia FC 3–1 Chievo

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, May 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win37%2.58
Draw33%2.93
Chievo win30%3.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chievo −0.2555%1.78
Venezia FC −0.2545%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.67
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Luca Garritano · Chievo
20'🟨Pasquale Mazzocchi · Venezia FC
41'⚽Domen Črnigoj · Venezia FC
53'🟨Mattia Aramu · Venezia FC
59'🟨Matteo Cotali · Chievo
68'⚽ (pen)Francesco Forte · Venezia FC
69'⚽Luigi Canotto · Chievo
76'⚽Francesco Di Mariano · Venezia FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
5On target1
4Corners7
15Fouls20
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCChievo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.690.65
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days273.00426.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.712.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.600.51
elo1498.351492.03
elo momentum (last 5)3.094.64
eye test v10.15-0.13
eye trend v1-0.410.00
first sub minute (last 10)58.8055.10
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v1—0.63
league points57.0050.00
league rank5.009.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8045.20
rest days14.003.92
scorer concentration0.290.16
season ppg1.581.39
shot diff avg (last 5)2.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.00
skill v10.46-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age26.6526.98
state index0.13-0.19
sterile dominance v10.25-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40