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Pordenone 2–2 Pisa

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Amabile

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone win34%2.89
Draw33%2.90
Pisa win33%3.02

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone +051%1.91
Pisa +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under62%1.53
Over38%2.63

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Michele Marconi · Pisa
11'⚽ (pen)Patrick Ciurria · Pordenone
17'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
39'🟨Manuel Scavone · Pordenone
45'⚽ (pen)Michele Marconi · Pisa
50'🟨Luca Mazzitelli · Pisa
52'🟨Alberto Barison · Pordenone
56'🟨Alberto Barison · Pordenone
56'🟥Alberto Barison · Pordenone
65'⚽Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone
70'🟨Nicholas Siega · Pisa
75'🟨Francesco Lisi · Pisa
88'🟨Alessandro Vogliacco · Pordenone
90'🟨Alessandro De Vitis · Pisa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
13Shots17
4On target4
4Corners8
23Fouls24
4Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenonePisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.720.58
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Guido Teghil
coach days1164.001058.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.362.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.300.65
elo1444.421454.98
elo momentum (last 5)-2.83-10.09
eye test v1-1.150.11
eye trend v10.690.16
first sub minute (last 10)50.8058.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.790.69
league points41.0045.00
league rank14.0010.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0077.20
possession avg (last 5)38.8053.40
rest days6.927.08
scorer concentration0.250.17
season ppg1.171.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.407.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.2016.40
skill v1-1.610.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)1.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.20
squad age26.9525.91
state index-0.35-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.170.29
threat rate (last 5)0.150.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20