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Frosinone Calcio 1–1 Cittadella

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Illuzzi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win37%2.66
Draw31%3.10
Cittadella win31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio +054%1.81
Cittadella +046%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Giacomo Beretta · Cittadella
29'🟨Federico Proia · Cittadella
45'🟨Giacomo Beretta · Cittadella
54'🟨Mattia Vitale · Frosinone Calcio
57'⚽Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio
61'🟨Domenico Frare · Cittadella
63'🟨Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella
65'🟨Grigoris Kastanos · Frosinone Calcio
68'🟨Romano Perticone · Cittadella
82'🟨Raffaele Maiello · Frosinone Calcio
87'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots12
7On target5
9Corners7
18Fouls20
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.130.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.700.60
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella
87'🟥Daniele Donnarumma · Cittadella
1.40
coach days40.002110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.000.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.52
elo1428.351474.35
elo momentum (last 5)-33.16-34.50
eye test v1-1.16-0.55
eye trend v1-0.37-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.4056.30
form points (last 5)2.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
keeper form v10.650.81
league points40.0049.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6072.00
possession avg (last 5)52.6053.40
rest days4.795.04
scorer concentration0.270.18
season ppg1.211.44
shot diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.80
skill v10.27-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.603.20
squad age26.9226.48
state index-0.77-0.72
sterile dominance v10.260.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.40