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Ascoli 1–0 AC Monza

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Apr 10, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza win42%2.46
Draw30%3.20
Ascoli win28%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli +0.2554%1.84
AC Monza +0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Abdelhamid Sabiri · Ascoli
52'🟨Lorenzo Pirola · AC Monza
64'⚽Dario Šarić · Ascoli
67'🟨Riccardo Brosco · Ascoli
68'🟨Mario Balotelli · AC Monza
90'🟨Andrea Danzi · Ascoli
90'🟨Lorenzo Pirola · AC Monza
90'🟥Lorenzo Pirola · AC Monza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots17
3On target4
5Corners2
18Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliAC Monza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.530.59
cards avg (last 5)2.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days130.00922.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.602.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1384.081479.41
elo momentum (last 5)26.43-30.83
eye test v10.06-0.38
eye trend v1-0.410.18
first sub minute (last 10)47.9056.70
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.740.68
league points34.0056.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8084.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4058.20
rest days4.964.96
scorer concentration0.310.16
season ppg1.001.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.403.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.8014.40
skill v10.431.26
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.60
squad age29.2427.30
state index-0.04-0.37
sterile dominance v10.120.66
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60