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Empoli 1–0 Pordenone

← Serie B 2020 Β· Tue, Mar 16, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. La Penna

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win64%1.50
Draw24%4.05
Pordenone win11%8.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli βˆ’153%1.84
Pordenone βˆ’147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
6'🟨Nicola Falasco · Pordenone
6'πŸŸ₯Nicola Falasco Β· Pordenone
27'🟨Marco Olivieri · Empoli
30'🟨Leonardo Mancuso · Empoli
32'🟨Leo Štulac · Empoli
71'🟨Nedim Bajrami · Empoli
86'🟨Sebastian Musiolik · Pordenone
88'⚽ (og)Adam Chrzanowski · Empoli

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
26Shots1
3On target0
13Corners0
13Fouls7
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricEmpoliPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.31β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.35β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.29β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.66β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Carlo Castellani
coach days227.001125.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.03
corner diff avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.17
dominance (last 5)0.600.53
elo1608.261447.26
elo momentum (last 5)27.81-44.24
eye test v10.51-1.19
eye trend v10.27-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)58.9050.30
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.30
keeper form v1β€”0.86
league points57.0035.00
league rank1.0013.00
matches since blank15.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2066.00
possession avg (last 5)53.6043.00
rest days3.043.21
scorer concentration0.290.28
season ppg1.901.17
shot diff avg (last 5)3.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.0012.00
skill v10.48-1.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.001.00
squad age26.0126.38
state index0.73-1.01
sterile dominance v1-0.29-1.09
threat rate (last 10)0.310.30
threat rate (last 3)0.350.33
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80