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Venezia FC 2–3 US Lecce

← Serie B 2020 · Tue, Mar 16, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win36%2.70
Venezia FC win33%3.02
Draw31%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce +053%1.84
Venezia FC +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.77
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Stefano Pettinari · US Lecce
40'🟨Zan Majer · US Lecce
45'⚽ (og)Fabio Lucioni · Venezia FC
50'⚽Massimo Coda · US Lecce
54'🟨Fabio Lucioni · US Lecce
57'⚽Youssef Maleh · Venezia FC
60'🟨Francesco Di Mariano · Venezia FC
70'🟨Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC
71'⚽ (pen)Massimo Coda · US Lecce
81'🟨Pablo Rodríguez · US Lecce
89'🟨Antonino Gallo · US Lecce
90'🟨Christian Maggio · US Lecce
90'🟨Morten Hjulmand · US Lecce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots5
3On target3
6Corners5
9Fouls18
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCUS Lecce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.610.70
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days227.00227.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.17
corner diff avg (last 5)2.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.352.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.66
elo1505.141569.57
elo momentum (last 5)-1.7824.74
eye test v11.340.62
eye trend v10.490.50
first sub minute (last 10)55.8058.40
form points (last 5)8.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.33
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1—0.70
league points50.0049.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8083.40
possession avg (last 5)53.2055.20
rest days3.133.13
scorer concentration0.380.31
season ppg1.671.69
shot diff avg (last 5)2.407.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.8015.00
skill v10.320.97
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)8.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.005.40
squad age26.2128.40
state index0.050.81
sterile dominance v1-0.070.37
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.20