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Virtus Entella 0–2 Cremonese

← Serie B 2020 · Tue, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win46%2.20
Draw30%3.30
Virtus Entella win24%4.13

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella +0.554%1.82
Cremonese +0.546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Giuseppe De Luca · Virtus Entella
32'🟨Alessandro Fiordaliso · Cremonese
47'⚽Gianluca Gaetano · Cremonese
50'🟨Ilias Koutsoupias · Virtus Entella
60'⚽Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese
79'🟨Filippo Nardi · Cremonese
90'🟨Matteo Brunori · Virtus Entella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots15
2On target5
9Corners6
15Fouls16
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaCremonese
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.480.69
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
coach days135.0074.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.360.58
elo1366.291423.84
elo momentum (last 5)4.26-3.47
eye test v1-0.830.66
eye trend v1-0.37-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)60.6046.50
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.680.75
league points24.0032.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)41.8056.20
rest days3.793.08
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg0.831.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.604.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.4015.20
skill v1-0.950.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.60
squad age27.3625.81
state index-0.92-0.23
sterile dominance v1-0.470.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.32
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80