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US Lecce 4–2 Chievo

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Mar 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win41%2.35
Draw31%3.11
Chievo win28%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chievo −0.2550%1.94
US Lecce −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Christian Maggio · US Lecce
18'🟨Joel Obi · Chievo
22'⚽Joel Obi · Chievo
25'⚽Massimo Coda · US Lecce
38'⚽Massimo Coda · US Lecce
41'🟨Zan Majer · US Lecce
42'⚽Stefano Pettinari · US Lecce
43'🟨Stefano Pettinari · US Lecce
52'🟨Christian Maggio · US Lecce
53'⚽Vasile Mogoș · Chievo
54'🟨Biagio Meccariello · US Lecce
74'🟨Manuel De Luca · Chievo
79'🟨Massimo Bertagnoli · Chievo
85'🟨Boban Nikolov · US Lecce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
11Shots10
4On target4
2Corners4
13Fouls10
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS LecceChievo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Via del Mare
coach days224.00377.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.992.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.23
dominance (last 5)0.650.63
elo1559.531500.25
elo momentum (last 5)23.18-39.24
eye test v10.54-0.19
eye trend v10.480.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.1058.10
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.73—
league points46.0043.00
league rank7.008.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)55.6055.40
rest days5.714.79
scorer concentration0.290.16
season ppg1.641.48
shot diff avg (last 5)7.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.4013.40
skill v10.940.59
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.60
squad age28.2428.20
state index0.62-0.55
sterile dominance v10.320.43
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60