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Virtus Entella 0–0 Ascoli

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Mar 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella win35%2.82
Draw33%3.06
Ascoli win32%3.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella +051%1.93
Ascoli +049%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.68
Over42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Oliver Kragl · Ascoli
20'🟨Marcel Büchel · Ascoli
26'🟨Michele Pellizzer · Virtus Entella
46'🟨Tommaso D'Orazio · Ascoli
53'🟨Simone Pinna · Ascoli
64'🟨Vlad Dragomir · Virtus Entella
68'🟨Andrea Paolucci · Virtus Entella
75'🟨Marcel Büchel · Ascoli
75'🟥Marcel Büchel · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots21
4On target7
2Corners7
15Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaAscoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
coach days125.0095.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.450.61
elo1363.711353.04
elo momentum (last 5)-15.98-29.26
eye test v1-0.490.18
eye trend v10.07-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)59.1050.40
form points (last 5)2.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.660.77
league points22.0022.00
league rank21.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win7.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6059.20
rest days3.793.79
scorer concentration0.170.32
season ppg0.810.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.805.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0013.60
skill v1-0.700.94
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age27.3526.74
state index-0.94-0.94
sterile dominance v1-0.410.76
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00