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Cittadella 0–1 Pescara

← Serie B 2020 Β· Tue, Mar 2, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Giua

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella win54%1.78
Draw27%3.60
Pescara win19%5.30

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara βˆ’0.7552%1.88
Cittadella βˆ’0.7548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.82
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Massimiliano Busellato · Pescara
31'🟨Amedeo Benedetti · Cittadella
35'🟨Agostino Camigliano · Cittadella
51'🟨Romano Perticone · Cittadella
56'🟨Fabio Maistro · Pescara
64'🟨Gennaro Scognamiglio · Pescara
90'⚽Jens Odgaard · Pescara

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots7
3On target1
5Corners0
19Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCittadellaPescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.560.49
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Pier Cesare Tombolato
coach days2071.0091.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.802.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.851.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.550.36
elo1508.931334.35
elo momentum (last 5)-17.79-11.05
eye test v1-0.07-0.55
eye trend v1-0.44-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)52.4051.70
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v1β€”0.64
league points43.0019.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0072.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2038.40
rest days3.133.21
scorer concentration0.200.24
season ppg1.650.73
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.607.80
skill v10.12-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
squad age27.1527.31
state index-0.26-1.18
sterile dominance v1-0.16-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00