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Cremonese 4–0 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Feb 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cremonese win41%2.41
Draw32%3.02
Frosinone Calcio win27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −0.2552%1.89
Cremonese −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Cristian Buonaiuto · Cremonese
27'🟨Michele Castagnetti · Cremonese
31'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio
42'⚽Cristian Buonaiuto · Cremonese
45'🟨Emanuele Valeri · Cremonese
48'🟨Marcus Rohdén · Frosinone Calcio
52'⚽Jaime Báez · Cremonese
57'⚽Daniel Ciofani · Cremonese
61'🟨Marco Carnesecchi · Cremonese
69'🟨Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
75'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots11
5On target5
3Corners7
24Fouls13
5Yellow cards5
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCremoneseFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.56
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Giovanni Zini
Lorenzo Ariaudo
· Frosinone Calcio
79'🟨Emanuele Valeri · Cremonese
79'🟥Emanuele Valeri · Cremonese
83'🟨Grigoris Kastanos · Frosinone Calcio
89'🟥Marco Carnesecchi · Cremonese
2.60
coach days57.00637.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.442.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.42
elo1427.311468.19
elo momentum (last 5)7.43-7.39
eye test v10.66-1.21
eye trend v1-0.06-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)46.7059.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.710.75
league points26.0034.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6052.40
rest days7.007.71
scorer concentration0.230.27
season ppg1.041.36
shot diff avg (last 5)6.80-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.409.00
skill v1-0.240.34
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.401.80
squad age25.6528.39
state index-0.23-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.790.76
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.320.18
threat rate (last 5)0.340.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20