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Venezia FC 3–2 Virtus Entella

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Feb 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Volpi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win52%1.85
Draw29%3.28
Virtus Entella win18%5.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC −0.553%1.85
Virtus Entella −0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Andrea Settembrini · Virtus Entella
21'🟨Youssef Maleh · Venezia FC
24'⚽Marco Brescianini · Virtus Entella
29'⚽Andrea Schenetti · Virtus Entella
32'🟨Marco Modolo · Venezia FC
36'🟨Markus Pavić · Virtus Entella
42'🟨Marco Chiosa · Virtus Entella
44'⚽Luca Fiordilino · Venezia FC
53'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC
56'⚽Dennis Johnsen · Venezia FC
60'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots11
6On target4
2Corners1
21Fouls27
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCVirtus Entella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
Giacomo Ricci
· Venezia FC
67'🟨Luca Fiordilino · Venezia FC
73'🟨Gabriel Cleur · Virtus Entella
78'🟨Anthony Taugourdeau · Venezia FC
2.20
coach days203.00111.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.951.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.16
dominance (last 5)0.490.49
elo1506.911362.03
elo momentum (last 5)32.65-25.13
eye test v1-0.41-0.22
eye trend v1-0.210.07
first sub minute (last 10)50.2057.70
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.610.66
league points42.0020.00
league rank4.0020.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)44.8052.80
rest days7.005.96
scorer concentration0.460.20
season ppg1.680.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.00
skill v1-0.750.10
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.80
squad age27.3126.49
state index0.44-0.89
sterile dominance v1-0.750.25
threat rate (last 10)0.290.19
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20