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Virtus Entella 2–3 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2020 · Sun, Feb 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Maggioni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win39%2.48
Draw33%2.99
Virtus Entella win28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella +0.2553%1.84
Frosinone Calcio +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Raffaele Maiello · Frosinone Calcio
25'🟨Marco Chiosa · Virtus Entella
27'⚽Lorenzo Ariaudo · Frosinone Calcio
35'⚽ (og)Marcos Curado · Virtus Entella
40'🟨Marcos Curado · Frosinone Calcio
47'🟨Andrea Paolucci · Virtus Entella
50'⚽Andrea Schenetti · Virtus Entella
55'🟨Filippo Costa · Virtus Entella
56'🟨Ilias Koutsoupias · Virtus Entella
58'🟨Marcus Rohdén · Frosinone Calcio
76'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots10
5On target4
5Corners3
15Fouls20
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.20
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.790.61
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
⚽
Pietro Iemmello · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Francesco Zampano · Frosinone Calcio
2.20
coach days105.00624.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.14
dominance (last 5)0.410.49
elo1371.071464.53
elo momentum (last 5)-20.83-24.95
eye test v1-0.35-0.42
eye trend v10.20-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)55.3061.70
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.710.69
league points20.0030.00
league rank20.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win3.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4082.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0057.20
rest days3.834.75
scorer concentration0.210.32
season ppg0.871.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.401.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.40
skill v1-0.121.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.202.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.671.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
squad age26.4728.60
state index-0.74-0.96
sterile dominance v10.330.78
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.14
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80