← Serie B 2020 · Fri, Feb 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.20 |
| Ascoli win | 18% | 5.38 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| US Lecce −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · US Lecce |
| 17' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mariusz Stępiński · US Lecce |
| 27' | 🟨 | Federico Dionisi · Ascoli |
| 28' | ⚽ | Federico Dionisi · Ascoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Abdelhamid Sabiri · Ascoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Biagio Meccariello · US Lecce |
| 56' | ⚽ | Federico Dionisi · Ascoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Caligara · Ascoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dario Šarić · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Rodríguez · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vittorio Parigini · Ascoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Leali · Ascoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| coach days | 188.00 | 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1557.34 | 1366.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.19 | 25.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 28.43 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |