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Virtus Entella 2–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2020 · Fri, Jan 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win38%2.58
Virtus Entella win31%3.12
Draw31%3.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella +0.2555%1.77
Pisa +0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa
33'🟨Andrea Schenetti · Virtus Entella
36'🟨Marco Brescianini · Virtus Entella
41'🟨Simone Benedetti · Pisa
42'⚽ (pen)Matteo Brunori · Virtus Entella
78'⚽Ilias Koutsoupias · Virtus Entella
90'🟨Mauro Coppolaro · Virtus Entella

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots15
3On target5
3Corners11
15Fouls16
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.610.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.700.59
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
coach days82.00966.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.20-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.408.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.212.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.04
dominance (last 5)0.290.47
elo1387.161467.78
elo momentum (last 5)50.7339.07
eye test v1-0.930.43
eye trend v10.270.10
first sub minute (last 10)49.1058.00
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.710.71
league points17.0024.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.6071.00
possession avg (last 5)40.6040.40
rest days7.086.29
scorer concentration0.270.23
season ppg0.891.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.80-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.2013.60
skill v1-1.48-1.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.20
squad age26.3027.14
state index-0.040.35
sterile dominance v1-0.14-1.35
threat rate (last 10)0.160.32
threat rate (last 3)0.110.37
threat rate (last 5)0.150.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60