⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Chievo 2–1 Virtus Entella

← Serie B 2020 Β· Fri, Jan 15, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Paterna

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chievo win59%1.64
Draw27%3.65
Virtus Entella win14%6.86

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella βˆ’155%1.77
Chievo βˆ’145%2.16

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'🟨Ilias Koutsoupias · Virtus Entella
49'⚽Amato Ciciretti · Chievo
53'⚽Manuel De Luca · Chievo
76'⚽Matteo Brunori · Virtus Entella
90'🟨Marco Chiosa · Virtus Entella

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots4
6On target3
4Corners3
13Fouls16
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChievoVirtus Entella
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.670.60
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi
coach days320.0075.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.21
corner diff avg (last 5)5.20-5.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.807.00
corners for avg (last 5)8.001.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.673.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.06
dominance (last 5)0.550.37
elo1534.961391.90
elo momentum (last 5)10.0250.71
eye test v1-0.43-1.02
eye trend v1-0.150.25
first sub minute (last 10)62.0050.80
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.830.71
league points24.0017.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0067.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2045.20
rest days11.0411.04
scorer concentration0.220.30
season ppg1.600.94
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.007.40
skill v10.88-1.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.00
squad age27.8727.42
state index0.330.01
sterile dominance v10.63-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.240.16
threat rate (last 5)0.240.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20