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Virtus Entella 1–0 Cittadella

← Serie B 2020 Β· Mon, Jan 4, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Gariglio

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella win44%2.22
Draw30%3.23
Virtus Entella win26%3.73

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cittadella +0.2551%1.89
Virtus Entella +0.2549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Andrea Paolucci · Virtus Entella
35'🟨Markus PaviΔ‡ Β· Virtus Entella
40'⚽Matteo Mancosu · Virtus Entella
72'🟨Romano Perticone · Cittadella
73'🟨Matteo Brunori · Virtus Entella
90'🟨Filippo Costa · Virtus Entella
90'🟨Roberto Ogunseye · Cittadella

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
2Shots13
1On target2
3Corners11
11Fouls18
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaCittadella
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)β€”0.78
cards avg (last 5)3.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
coach days64.002014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.301.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.05
dominance (last 5)0.370.63
elo1378.891546.75
elo momentum (last 5)29.5235.34
eye test v1-1.030.87
eye trend v10.240.23
first sub minute (last 10)46.5058.30
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.69β€”
league points14.0030.00
league rank19.005.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4072.20
possession avg (last 5)47.0051.20
rest days5.005.13
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg0.822.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.806.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.8016.20
skill v1-0.61-0.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.40
squad age26.2128.01
state index-0.420.67
sterile dominance v10.26-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.33
threat rate (last 5)0.170.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40