← Serie B 2020 · Mon, Jan 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Pordenone win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.16 |
| Salernitana win | 30% | 3.23 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Salernitana +0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Pordenone +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand