← Serie B 2020 · Mon, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 37% | 2.65 |
| AC Monza win | 36% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AC Monza +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Marco Mancosu · US Lecce |
| 7' | 🟨 | Davide Bettella · AC Monza |
| 14' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kastriot Dermaku · US Lecce |
| 90' | 🟥 | Giuseppe Bellusci · AC Monza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | AC Monza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| coach days | 156.00 | 826.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1555.69 | 1472.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.23 | 45.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |