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Venezia FC 1–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2020 Β· Mon, Jan 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: I. Robilotta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC win45%2.15
Draw30%3.25
Pisa win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Venezia FC βˆ’0.2553%1.82
Pisa βˆ’0.2547%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Mattia Aramu · Venezia FC
39'⚽Michele Marconi · Pisa
41'🟨Luca Fiordilino · Venezia FC
45'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
54'🟨Francesco Lisi · Pisa
58'🟨Pietro Ceccaroni · Venezia FC
72'🟨Antonio Caracciolo · Pisa
83'⚽Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC
90'🟨Alessandro De Vitis · Pisa

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots12
11On target4
11Corners2
15Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVenezia FCPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.53
cards avg (last 5)3.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Pierluigi Penzo
coach days156.00948.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.03
dominance (last 5)0.590.53
elo1477.041457.60
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9035.39
eye test v10.610.46
eye trend v1-0.090.40
first sub minute (last 10)59.5055.70
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.710.60
league points27.0020.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)55.2044.00
rest days4.758.00
scorer concentration0.470.25
season ppg1.591.25
shot diff avg (last 5)4.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.0013.60
skill v10.82-1.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.40
squad age26.3127.17
state index-0.230.24
sterile dominance v10.32-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.270.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.33
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60