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Pescara 0–0 Cosenza

← Serie B 2020 Β· Wed, Dec 30, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara win39%2.49
Draw31%3.16
Cosenza win30%3.23

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza βˆ’0.2554%1.81
Pescara βˆ’0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.78
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Mirko Carretta · Cosenza
43'🟨Luca Bittante · Cosenza
43'🟨Luca Bittante · Cosenza
43'πŸŸ₯Luca Bittante Β· Cosenza
55'🟨Angelo Corsi · Cosenza
56'🟨Fabio Maistro · Pescara
66'🟨Antonio Balzano · Pescara
90'🟨Abou Ba · Cosenza

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
24Shots8
3On target2
5Corners6
22Fouls12
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.600.65
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days29.001490.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.731.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.05
dominance (last 5)0.550.56
elo1361.751449.97
elo momentum (last 5)-11.75-6.86
eye test v1-0.110.34
eye trend v1-0.04-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)56.6061.00
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.610.81
league points12.0015.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8081.40
possession avg (last 5)50.2052.60
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.250.27
season ppg0.750.94
shot diff avg (last 5)3.003.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.8017.20
skill v10.210.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
squad age26.2128.61
state index-0.84-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.18-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.340.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60