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Cosenza 0–1 Reggiana

← Serie B 2020 Β· Sat, Dec 12, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Marchetti

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza win45%2.14
Draw28%3.45
Reggiana win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza βˆ’0.2553%1.84
Reggiana βˆ’0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Arlind Ajeti · Reggiana
36'🟨Andrea Costa · Reggiana
43'🟨Daniele Sciaudone · Cosenza
66'⚽Ivan Varone · Reggiana
76'🟨Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
87'🟨Davide Voltan · Reggiana

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots10
4On target6
7Corners4
17Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaReggiana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.54
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00β€”
box share (last 5)0.720.59
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1472.00530.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.30β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.450.34
elo1456.821477.49
elo momentum (last 5)-2.24-10.92
eye test v1-0.160.13
eye trend v1-0.000.13
first sub minute (last 10)52.9055.12
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.63β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.60β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35β€”
keeper form v10.840.94
league points10.0011.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2080.40
possession avg (last 5)50.4051.60
rest days5.715.96
scorer concentration0.430.45
season ppg0.911.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-9.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.20
skill v10.160.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.807.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
squad age27.8626.09
state index-0.43-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.030.58
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.310.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.60β€”