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US Lecce 2–2 Frosinone Calcio

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Dec 12, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win51%2.00
Draw27%3.78
Frosinone Calcio win23%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce −0.552%1.86
Frosinone Calcio −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Claud Adjapong · US Lecce
15'⚽ (pen)Piotr Parzyszek · Frosinone Calcio
44'⚽Claud Adjapong · US Lecce
50'🟨Biagio Meccariello · US Lecce
58'🟨Grigoris Kastanos · Frosinone Calcio
60'⚽Marco Mancosu · US Lecce
82'🟨Marcin Listkowski · US Lecce
88'🟨Andrija Novakovich · Frosinone Calcio
89'⚽Andrija Novakovich · Frosinone Calcio
90'🟨Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots14
3On target5
8Corners6
12Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS LecceFrosinone Calcio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.620.53
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Via del Mare
Marcos Curado · Frosinone Calcio
2.00
coach days133.00560.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.660.49
elo1586.111499.98
elo momentum (last 5)40.28-8.59
eye test v11.840.09
eye trend v1-0.160.26
first sub minute (last 10)49.2044.90
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.171.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.750.83
league points19.0019.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet8.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)50.2049.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.350.36
season ppg1.901.90
shot diff avg (last 5)10.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)19.4014.80
skill v10.530.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)7.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)8.204.20
squad age28.6127.97
state index1.030.06
sterile dominance v1-0.87-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.380.27
threat rate (last 3)0.330.33
threat rate (last 5)0.390.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40