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Spal 2–0 Pescara

← Serie B 2020 Β· Sat, Nov 21, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spal win58%1.68
Draw26%3.64
Pescara win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spal βˆ’0.7552%1.87
Pescara βˆ’0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Bartosz Salamon · Spal
30'🟨Mattia Valoti · Spal
39'🟨Antonio Balzano · Pescara
60'🟨Salvatore Esposito · Spal
71'🟨Massimiliano Busellato · Pescara
73'🟨Caleb Okoli · Spal
90'🟨Sebastiano Esposito · Spal
90'⚽Sebastiano Esposito · Spal

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots6
4On target1
3Corners4
17Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSpalPescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.560.53
cards avg (last 5)2.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Paolo Mazza
coach days112.00143.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.943.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.22
dominance (last 5)0.490.42
elo1498.331388.18
elo momentum (last 5)26.69-22.39
eye test v10.22-0.50
eye trend v10.310.54
first sub minute (last 10)58.2054.30
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.780.52
league points15.004.00
league rank3.0019.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8081.60
possession avg (last 5)56.0051.00
rest days14.7112.96
scorer concentration0.200.50
season ppg1.880.57
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.809.20
skill v10.780.53
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.00
squad age25.6526.53
state index0.40-1.01
sterile dominance v10.270.76
threat rate (last 10)0.250.16
threat rate (last 3)0.280.18
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00