⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

US Lecce 3–1 Pescara

← Serie B 2020 · Mon, Nov 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Amabile

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
US Lecce win66%1.46
Draw22%4.55
Pescara win13%7.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara −1.2553%1.85
US Lecce −1.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Mariusz Stępiński · US Lecce
25'🟨Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce
50'⚽Massimo Coda · US Lecce
63'🟨Leandro Fernandes · Pescara
66'🟨Massimiliano Busellato · Pescara
67'⚽Fabio Maistro · Pescara
75'⚽Mariusz Stępiński · US Lecce
81'🟨Edoardo Masciangelo · Pescara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
22Shots9
5On target3
8Corners9
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUS LeccePescara
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.530.65
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Via del Mare
coach days93.00124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.873.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.22
dominance (last 5)0.580.41
elo1545.831376.24
elo momentum (last 5)-16.09-49.51
eye test v10.83-1.15
eye trend v1-0.190.13
first sub minute (last 10)45.4051.90
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
keeper form v10.720.57
league points6.001.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4084.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4055.80
rest days8.259.25
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.200.20
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)19.008.40
skill v10.771.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.202.90
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.401.80
squad age28.5227.51
state index-0.13-1.57
sterile dominance v1-0.391.35
threat rate (last 10)0.360.19
threat rate (last 3)0.400.18
threat rate (last 5)0.360.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00