⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

AC Monza 1–2 Chievo

← Serie B 2020 · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza win46%2.11
Draw30%3.25
Chievo win24%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AC Monza −0.2554%1.79
Chievo −0.2546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Dany Mota · AC Monza
29'⚽ (pen)Kevin-Prince Boateng · AC Monza
36'🟨Antonino Barillà · AC Monza
43'🟨Antonino Barillà · AC Monza
43'🟥Antonino Barillà · AC Monza
49'⚽Filip Đorđević · Chievo
64'⚽Filip Đorđević · Chievo
83'🟥Mattia Viviani · Chievo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots16
5On target4
4Corners7
11Fouls11
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAC MonzaChievo
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueU-Power Stadium
coach days754.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)—0.06
corner diff avg (last 5)—0.20
corners against avg (last 5)—3.20
corners for avg (last 5)—3.40
corners volatility (last 10)—2.22
defensive leak (last 5)—0.04
dominance (last 5)—0.66
elo1386.761519.39
elo momentum (last 5)22.62-7.69
eye test v10.52-0.20
eye trend v1—0.25
first sub minute (last 10)63.0061.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.55
keeper form v1—0.79
league points3.007.00
league rank15.006.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.3376.60
possession avg (last 5)54.6749.20
rest days3.713.71
season ppg1.001.75
shot diff avg (last 5)—6.40
shots for avg (last 5)—14.40
skill v10.94-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)2.673.00
sot for avg (last 10)—4.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.333.80
squad age29.0526.40
state index-0.390.18
sterile dominance v10.60-0.29
threat rate (last 10)—0.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40