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Pordenone 2–2 Reggina

← Serie B 2020 Β· Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Abbattista

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina win38%2.75
Pordenone win31%3.35
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone +0.2553%1.83
Reggina +0.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.80
Over44%2.31

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Daniele Liotti · Reggina
41'🟨Nicola Bellomo · Reggina
47'🟨Gabriele Rolando · Reggina
49'⚽Davide Diaw · Pordenone
52'🟨Thiago Cionek · Reggina
69'⚽Patrick Ciurria · Pordenone
74'🟨Gianvito Misuraca · Pordenone
75'🟨Gianluca Di Chiara · Reggina
90'⚽Michael Folorunsho · Reggina

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots8
4On target3
7Corners2
18Fouls25
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenoneReggina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.33β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.650.59
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Guido Teghil
coach days982.00572.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.784.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.380.59
elo1469.151364.13
elo momentum (last 5)-11.2315.75
eye test v1-0.550.85
eye trend v1-0.00β€”
first sub minute (last 10)51.3053.00
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.83β€”
league points4.006.00
league rank12.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6082.00
possession avg (last 5)45.2062.00
rest days3.713.71
scorer concentrationβ€”0.40
season ppg0.801.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.604.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.2015.00
skill v1-0.911.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.25
sot for avg (last 10)3.60β€”
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.00
squad age25.8929.85
state index-0.71-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.590.74
threat rate (last 10)0.27β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40