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Empoli 3–1 Pisa

← Serie B 2020 Β· Fri, Oct 23, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Maresca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win45%2.15
Draw29%3.41
Pisa win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli βˆ’0.2552%1.85
Pisa βˆ’0.2548%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.84
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Gaetano Masucci · Pisa
30'🟨Leonardo Mancuso · Empoli
38'⚽Stefano Moreo · Empoli
43'🟨Stefano Moreo · Empoli
45'🟨Robert Gucher · Pisa
68'🟨Samuele Birindelli · Pisa
75'⚽Andrea La Mantia · Empoli
76'🟨Andrea La Mantia · Empoli
82'⚽Andrea La Mantia · Empoli
84'🟨Riccardo Fiamozzi · Empoli

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
22Shots6
8On target1
6Corners2
15Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricEmpoliPisa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.670.64
cards avg (last 5)0.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Carlo Castellani
coach days83.00875.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.15
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1544.861443.44
elo momentum (last 5)27.37-15.86
eye test v10.59-0.21
eye trend v10.110.34
first sub minute (last 10)53.6060.10
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v1β€”0.50
league points10.003.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4075.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8052.80
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.33β€”
season ppg2.500.75
shot diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2013.80
skill v10.300.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
squad age25.1827.41
state index0.43-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.36-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.28
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60