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Reggina 0–0 Cosenza

← Serie B 2020 · Tue, Oct 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ros

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina win50%1.95
Draw28%3.60
Cosenza win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reggina −0.551%1.90
Cosenza −0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Riccardo Idda · Cosenza
33'🟨Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
35'🟨Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
35'🟥Andrea Tiritiello · Cosenza
53'🟨Daniele Liotti · Reggina
54'🟨Jaime Báez · Cosenza
68'🟨Jérémy Ménez · Reggina
77'🟨Lorenzo Crisetig · Reggina
86'🟨Abou Ba · Cosenza
88'🟨Michael Folorunsho · Reggina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
27Shots7
12On target3
13Corners1
17Fouls17
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegginaCosenza
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.580.47
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Oreste Granillo
coach days568.001419.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.408.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.571.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.40
elo1362.781469.99
elo momentum (last 5)4.2733.18
eye test v10.130.98
eye trend v1—-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)49.6756.60
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v1—0.74
league points5.003.00
league rank6.0013.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet17.002.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)58.3341.40
rest days3.293.29
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg1.671.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.40
skill v10.86-0.85
sot against avg (last 5)3.335.40
sot for avg (last 10)—4.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.336.40
squad age30.8228.62
state index-0.440.25
sterile dominance v10.72-1.44
threat rate (last 10)—0.32
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.00