β Serie B 2020 Β· Tue, Oct 20, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: F. Meraviglia
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ascoli win | 46% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 |
| Reggiana win | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ascoli β0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Reggiana β0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca |