β Serie B 2020 Β· Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Chiffi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Chievo win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Reggiana win | 32% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Chievo +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Reggiana +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.73 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - CittΓ del Tricolore |