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Yeni Malatyaspor 0–5 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, May 21, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Bayarslan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win75%1.28
Draw15%6.50
Yeni Malatyaspor win10%11.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor +1.7551%1.93
Fenerbahce +1.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.43
Under33%2.89

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
23'🟥Barış Başdaş · Yeni Malatyaspor
24'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
32'⚽Serdar Dursun · Fenerbahce
45'🟨Atakan Mujde · Yeni Malatyaspor
57'⚽Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
70'🟨Attila Szalai · Fenerbahce
75'⚽İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce
77'⚽Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
89'⚽Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots29
4On target12
0Corners10
8Fouls8
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.510.67
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
2.00
coach days81.00171.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)9.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.253.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.07
dominance (last 5)0.410.60
elo1336.921710.86
elo momentum (last 5)-40.029.55
eye test v10.180.94
eye trend v10.00-0.75
first sub minute (last 10)50.0062.30
form points (last 5)0.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.801.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.83
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.500.79
league points27.0085.00
league rank24.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win12.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6086.80
possession avg (last 5)33.8060.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.320.17
season ppg0.601.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.40
skill v1-1.141.58
sot against avg (last 5)8.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.506.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.20
squad age24.1927.82
state index-1.791.07
sterile dominance v1-1.450.98
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.320.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.002.60