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Alanyaspor 3–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, May 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Şimşek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win67%1.43
Draw20%5.10
Gaziantep win13%7.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −1.2553%1.88
Gaziantep −1.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.51
Under37%2.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Furkan Bayır · Alanyaspor
33'🟨Halil Ibrahim Pehlivan · Gaziantep
43'🟨Ángelo Sagal · Gaziantep
59'⚽Famara Diédhiou · Alanyaspor
62'🟨Efkan Bekiroğlu · Alanyaspor
83'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
85'🟨Alin Toșca · Gaziantep
89'⚽Wilson Eduardo · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots11
8On target3
5Corners2
17Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.62
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
coach days134.00379.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)3.603.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.407.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.602.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.260.12
dominance (last 5)0.600.45
elo1587.531505.13
elo momentum (last 5)-1.41-14.74
eye test v10.470.46
eye trend v10.01-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.0054.50
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v1—0.66
league points73.0052.00
league rank5.0013.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet7.004.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0083.40
possession avg (last 5)65.2045.60
rest days8.008.96
scorer concentration0.180.24
season ppg1.661.18
shot diff avg (last 5)8.20-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.4012.20
skill v11.940.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
squad age29.4428.82
state index0.16-0.74
sterile dominance v11.28-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00