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Trabzonspor 2–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Apr 30, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win55%1.72
Draw25%3.93
Antalyaspor win20%5.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −0.7550%1.93
Antalyaspor −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.86
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Andreas Cornelius · Trabzonspor
27'🟨Edin Višća · Trabzonspor
43'🟨Veysel Sarı · Antalyaspor
51'⚽Alassane Ndao · Antalyaspor
57'🟨Naldo · Antalyaspor
62'⚽Dorukhan Toköz · Trabzonspor
63'🟨Alassane Ndao · Antalyaspor
65'🟨Marek Hamšík · Trabzonspor
80'⚽Haji Wright · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Anastasios Bakasetas · Trabzonspor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots12
5On target7
5Corners4
9Fouls12
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.61
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
Güray Vural
· Antalyaspor
coach days545.00211.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.26
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.701.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.48
elo1763.471583.06
elo momentum (last 5)3.8650.81
eye test v10.300.35
eye trend v1-0.02-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)51.1053.20
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.800.83
league points93.0056.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank3.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4081.40
possession avg (last 5)55.8049.60
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.260.23
season ppg2.271.40
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.6010.80
skill v10.820.42
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age28.5229.71
state index0.810.89
sterile dominance v10.260.38
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.360.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.60