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Gaziantep 0–0 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Apr 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Özdamar

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win42%2.37
Gaziantep win31%3.10
Draw27%3.66

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.2552%1.90
Trabzonspor +0.2548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.78
Under45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Gaziantep
68'🟨João Figueiredo · Gaziantep
69'🟨Bruno Peres · Trabzonspor
72'🟨Ángelo Sagal · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots19
6On target5
5Corners6
7Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.570.72
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days343.00524.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d4.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.13
dominance (last 5)0.520.50
elo1519.871754.57
elo momentum (last 5)10.08-18.19
eye test v10.080.63
eye trend v1-0.23-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)52.4055.40
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.50
keeper form v10.700.77
league points49.0085.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank7.0014.00
matches since clean sheet7.005.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2082.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0059.60
rest days6.296.00
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.262.30
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2014.60
skill v10.241.20
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.60
squad age28.7827.54
state index-0.040.56
sterile dominance v1-0.030.79
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00