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Rizespor 2–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Apr 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win45%2.16
Rizespor win28%3.60
Draw27%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor +0.2552%1.87
Rizespor +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.87
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Zymer Bytyqi · Konyaspor
35'🟨Amilton da Silva · Konyaspor
39'🟨Sebastian Holmén · Rizespor
43'⚽Yannick Bolasie · Rizespor
45'🟨Erik Sabo · Rizespor
69'🟨Amilton da Silva · Konyaspor
69'🟥Amilton da Silva · Konyaspor
77'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Rizespor
86'🟨Gedson Fernandes · Rizespor
90'🟥Amar Rahmanović · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots9
3On target3
5Corners3
12Fouls18
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.550.64
cards avg (last 5)1.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days220.00432.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.691.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.370.49
elo1388.371636.90
elo momentum (last 5)-8.9434.35
eye test v1-0.170.79
eye trend v10.160.33
first sub minute (last 10)52.4057.60
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.630.69
league points29.0070.00
league rank23.002.00
matches since blank7.0015.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4043.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.320.20
season ppg0.741.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.40-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0013.60
skill v1-0.09-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.80
squad age28.2728.44
state index-0.790.64
sterile dominance v10.23-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.34
threat rate (last 5)0.200.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60