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Goztep 1–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Apr 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Uğurlu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win47%2.15
Kayserispor win27%3.84
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.551%1.90
Goztep −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Emrah Başsan · Kayserispor
24'🟨François Moubandje · Goztep
26'⚽Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
28'🟨Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
45'⚽Franco di Santo · Goztep
65'🟨Gustavo Campanharo · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots8
7On target3
6Corners4
17Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı
coach days39.00251.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.811.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.17
dominance (last 5)0.370.37
elo1431.781515.45
elo momentum (last 5)-41.23-53.27
eye test v1-0.75-0.28
eye trend v1-0.35-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)56.0050.10
form points (last 5)0.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.003.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v1—0.71
league points37.0053.00
league rank21.007.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet14.0011.00
matches since win10.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6080.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8045.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.25
season ppg0.971.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.20
skill v10.330.06
sot against avg (last 5)6.407.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
squad age29.0729.12
state index-1.52-1.13
sterile dominance v10.62-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.40