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Rizespor 3–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Fri, Mar 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Bayarslan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win53%1.85
Draw25%4.00
Rizespor win22%4.74

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor +0.7551%1.91
Trabzonspor +0.7549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.78
Under45%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Carlos Ponck · Rizespor
48'⚽Abdülkadir Ömür · Trabzonspor
59'⚽ (pen)Joel Pohjanpalo · Rizespor
63'🟨Stefano Denswil · Trabzonspor
64'⚽ (pen)Joel Pohjanpalo · Rizespor
70'⚽Djaniny · Trabzonspor
75'🟨Bruno Peres · Trabzonspor
89'🟨Cemali Sertel · Rizespor
90'🟨Erce Kardeşler · Trabzonspor
90'⚽ (pen)Joel Pohjanpalo · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots10
6On target3
6Corners9
18Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.530.70
cards avg (last 5)2.000.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
coach days198.00502.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.56
elo1374.351777.17
elo momentum (last 5)-28.3423.05
eye test v1-0.321.43
eye trend v1-0.11-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)55.0056.70
form points (last 5)0.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.801.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.640.80
league points26.0084.00
league rank24.001.00
matches since blank5.0012.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win11.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2085.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8054.40
rest days6.176.04
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.702.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.203.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6017.60
skill v10.011.07
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.106.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.337.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.407.00
squad age29.0127.74
state index-1.661.21
sterile dominance v10.21-0.05
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.140.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.002.20