⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kayserispor 2–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Mar 13, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win42%2.29
Kayserispor win29%3.40
Draw29%3.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +0.2551%1.94
Konyaspor +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.93
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Abdulkadir Parmak · Kayserispor
14'⚽Mario Gavranović · Kayserispor
27'🟨Joseph Attamah · Kayserispor
32'🟨Abdülkerim Bardakcı · Konyaspor
41'⚽ (pen)Guilherme Haubert Sityá · Konyaspor
48'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
52'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Konyaspor
61'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Konyaspor
84'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
90'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots18
4On target10
8Corners2
11Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.790.65
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days224.00405.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.151.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.20
dominance (last 5)0.340.49
elo1554.241628.33
elo momentum (last 5)-2.57-0.15
eye test v10.090.35
eye trend v1-0.110.02
first sub minute (last 10)53.3059.70
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.590.69
league points53.0064.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank15.0012.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)37.8052.20
rest days5.737.77
scorer concentration0.240.15
season ppg1.471.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.8012.60
skill v1-0.970.71
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
squad age29.9728.86
state index-0.05-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.950.38
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.340.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60