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Hatayspor 5–2 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Feb 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ç. Altay

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win58%1.66
Draw24%3.98
Yeni Malatyaspor win18%5.61

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −0.7553%1.85
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.7547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.86
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Ayoub El Kaabi · Hatayspor
25'⚽Yassine Benzia · Hatayspor
34'⚽Ayoub El Kaabi · Hatayspor
68'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Hatayspor
70'⚽ (pen)Nouha Dicko · Yeni Malatyaspor
80'⚽Nouha Dicko · Yeni Malatyaspor
84'⚽Ayoub El Kaabi · Hatayspor
89'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
13Shots14
8On target7
2Corners4
10Fouls9
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.670.62
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Hatay Stadyumu
2.40
coach days575.0026.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.46
elo1535.701406.31
elo momentum (last 5)-32.73-9.56
eye test v1-0.33-0.27
eye trend v10.220.32
first sub minute (last 10)48.7064.00
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.580.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.630.70
league points43.0021.00
league rank12.0024.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.0019.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)47.4048.00
rest days6.883.96
scorer concentration0.260.35
season ppg1.340.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.60
skill v1-0.220.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.40
squad age28.6027.19
state index-0.42-1.34
sterile dominance v1-0.03-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20