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Alanyaspor 5–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Feb 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Bayarslan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win42%2.31
Konyaspor win30%3.22
Draw28%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.2551%1.92
Alanyaspor −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥— · Konyaspor
11'⚽Abdülkerim Bardakcı · Konyaspor
26'⚽ (og)Adil Demirbağ · Alanyaspor
29'🟨João Novais · Alanyaspor
33'⚽Umut Güneş · Alanyaspor
37'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
38'🟨Abdülkerim Bardakcı · Konyaspor
38'⚽ (pen)Famara Diédhiou · Alanyaspor
42'⚽João Novais · Alanyaspor
59'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
87'⚽Oğuz Aydın

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
17Shots14
10On target3
4Corners5
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.600.66
cards avg (last 5)0.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
· Alanyaspor
coach days57.00391.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.532.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.560.56
elo1576.681620.42
elo momentum (last 5)-14.10-31.01
eye test v10.630.07
eye trend v1-0.280.04
first sub minute (last 10)63.5059.40
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.661.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.650.72
league points52.0058.00
league rank5.002.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet6.005.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6082.40
possession avg (last 5)55.4054.80
rest days7.004.83
scorer concentration0.190.16
season ppg1.581.76
shot diff avg (last 5)1.802.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.60
skill v11.080.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age30.7428.69
state index-0.30-0.31
sterile dominance v10.490.61
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20