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Kayserispor 2–1 Giresunspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Feb 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Palabıyık

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win41%2.43
Draw30%3.27
Giresunspor win29%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Giresunspor −0.2553%1.85
Kayserispor −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Kayserispor
29'⚽Mario Gavranović · Kayserispor
34'🟨Sergen Piçinciol · Giresunspor
45'⚽Mert Çetin · Kayserispor
53'🟨Andrea Bertolacci · Kayserispor
67'🟨Chiquinho · Giresunspor
78'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor
84'🟨Onur Bulut · Kayserispor
86'⚽Magomed Shapi Suleymanov · Giresunspor
90'🟨Magomed Shapi Suleymanov · Giresunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots12
3On target6
2Corners8
13Fouls16
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporGiresunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.770.51
cards avg (last 5)0.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days202.00202.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.40-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.212.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.340.39
elo1562.971464.84
elo momentum (last 5)-14.30-55.67
eye test v10.13-0.29
eye trend v1-0.130.21
first sub minute (last 10)51.7060.20
form points (last 5)5.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v1—0.74
league points50.0029.00
league rank4.0019.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2046.80
rest days6.887.00
scorer concentration0.210.19
season ppg1.520.94
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.8010.20
skill v1-0.40-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age28.1025.98
state index-0.11-1.00
sterile dominance v10.000.13
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.21
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40