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Karagumruk 1–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Feb 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Palabıyık

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win55%1.78
Draw26%3.86
Yeni Malatyaspor win19%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.7550%1.94
Karagumruk −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.83
Over46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Kristijan Bistrović · Karagumruk
37'🟨Godfred Donsah · Yeni Malatyaspor
47'🟨Gastón Campi · Yeni Malatyaspor
63'🟨Mounir Chouiar · Yeni Malatyaspor
63'⚽Salih Dursun · Karagumruk
83'🟨Kenan Özer · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots13
7On target4
5Corners5
10Fouls13
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.68
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı
1.60
coach days96.004.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.802.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.412.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.39
elo1537.811420.52
elo momentum (last 5)-51.51-11.03
eye test v10.31-1.02
eye trend v10.52-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)53.1067.20
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.710.70
league points40.0020.00
league rank8.0024.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win3.0015.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)50.6041.20
rest days14.0014.10
scorer concentration0.420.40
season ppg1.430.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.80
skill v10.64-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.40
squad age29.1627.55
state index-0.96-1.22
sterile dominance v10.39-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20