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Kayserispor 4–3 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Fri, Feb 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win43%2.30
Hatayspor win29%3.58
Draw28%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor −0.2552%1.89
Hatayspor −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Emre Kaplan · Hatayspor
25'⚽ (pen)İbrahim Akdağ · Kayserispor
47'⚽Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
51'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Hatayspor
58'🟨Adama Traoré · Hatayspor
61'⚽Emrah Başsan · Kayserispor
68'⚽Uğur Demirok · Kayserispor
70'⚽Simon Falette · Hatayspor
90'⚽Mame Biram Diouf · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots16
7On target4
5Corners5
12Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.710.71
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days187.00552.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d6.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.372.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.13
dominance (last 5)0.440.41
elo1548.601545.88
elo momentum (last 5)-5.89-3.89
eye test v10.04-0.27
eye trend v10.250.14
first sub minute (last 10)49.4051.80
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v1—0.54
league points45.0040.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8073.60
possession avg (last 5)43.0046.40
rest days12.2712.27
scorer concentration0.240.28
season ppg1.501.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.8010.20
skill v1-0.26-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age29.4628.21
state index-0.07-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.200.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60