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Sivasspor 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sat, Jan 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ulusoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win34%2.86
Sivasspor win33%2.95
Draw33%2.96

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +051%1.92
Sivasspor +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Koray Altınay · Sivasspor
18'⚽Miha Zajc · Fenerbahce
34'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
65'🟨Nazım Sangaré · Fenerbahce
73'🟨Miguel Crespo · Fenerbahce
74'⚽Pedro Henrique · Sivasspor
83'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots9
5On target3
9Corners6
14Fouls19
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.510.62
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days966.0052.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.004.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.801.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.783.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.21
dominance (last 5)0.580.64
elo1624.871645.33
elo momentum (last 5)-25.68-26.14
eye test v10.291.22
eye trend v1-0.32-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)61.5061.50
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.66
league points37.0045.00
league rank10.005.00
matches since blank3.0011.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6088.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0064.40
rest days2.962.83
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg1.421.67
shot diff avg (last 5)4.408.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6016.60
skill v10.402.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.60
squad age28.4426.90
state index0.080.08
sterile dominance v1-0.051.15
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60