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Fenerbahce 2–1 Altay

← Süper Lig 2021 · Wed, Jan 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Göçek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win66%1.46
Draw21%4.92
Altay win13%7.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Altay −1.2552%1.88
Fenerbahce −1.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Ahmed Yasser Rayan · Altay
23'🟨Attila Szalai · Fenerbahce
29'🟨Ferdi Kadıoğlu · Fenerbahce
37'⚽İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce
42'🟨César Pinares · Altay
60'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Altay
67'🟨Martín Rodríguez · Altay
71'⚽Serdar Dursun · Fenerbahce
82'🟨Thaciano · Altay

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots3
5On target1
4Corners2
16Fouls23
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceAltay
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.53
cards avg (last 5)1.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days49.0018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.03
corner diff avg (last 5)4.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)0.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.15
dominance (last 5)0.560.47
elo1642.371398.48
elo momentum (last 5)-29.79-43.52
eye test v11.170.06
eye trend v1-0.07-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)63.4056.80
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v1—0.72
league points42.0020.00
league rank5.0023.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.009.00
matches since win3.0018.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)60.4042.00
rest days4.043.27
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.620.80
shot diff avg (last 5)4.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2012.20
skill v11.55-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.20
squad age27.1928.26
state index-0.06-1.70
sterile dominance v10.90-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.28
threat rate (last 5)0.250.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20