← Süper Lig 2021 · Wed, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Arslanboğa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Goztep win | 45% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.23 |
| Sivasspor win | 25% | 4.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Goztep −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Sivasspor −0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı |