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Goztep 2–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Wed, Jan 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Arslanboğa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win45%2.12
Draw30%3.23
Sivasspor win25%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep −0.2553%1.88
Sivasspor −0.2547%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Obinna Nwobodo · Goztep
22'⚽Atınç Nukan · Goztep
44'🟨Lourency · Goztep
49'🟨Dino Arslanagić · Goztep
50'⚽ (pen)Pedro Henrique · Sivasspor
53'🟨Samba Camara · Sivasspor
62'🟨Kerem Atakan Kesgin · Sivasspor
80'⚽David Tijanič · Goztep
84'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Goztep
88'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Sivasspor
90'🟨Olarenwaju Kayode · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots20
3On target5
5Corners1
19Fouls14
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.690.54
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı
coach days140.00963.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.601.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1493.261637.24
elo momentum (last 5)21.91-3.08
eye test v10.010.17
eye trend v1-0.12-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)60.9058.90
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.650.72
league points28.0037.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2079.60
possession avg (last 5)47.4048.40
rest days4.884.04
scorer concentration0.260.29
season ppg1.121.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.00
skill v1-0.570.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age27.0927.85
state index0.280.41
sterile dominance v1-0.480.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.40