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Kayserispor 3–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2021 · Mon, Dec 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win37%2.63
Kayserispor win32%2.98
Draw31%3.21

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor +053%1.83
Kayserispor +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.66
Over41%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Mario Gavranović · Kayserispor
17'⚽Mario Gavranović · Kayserispor
23'⚽Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
36'🟨Gustavo Campanharo · Kayserispor
43'🟨Uğur Demirok · Kayserispor
61'🟨Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
10Shots10
6On target5
2Corners7
14Fouls10
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
box share (last 5)0.670.70
cards avg (last 5)3.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
coach days148.00940.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.310.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.061.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.350.65
elo1528.521644.07
elo momentum (last 5)-12.6835.76
eye test v1-0.950.52
eye trend v10.140.57
first sub minute (last 10)51.4058.80
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.35
keeper form v10.640.74
league points31.0033.00
league rank12.0011.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8079.80
possession avg (last 5)40.8045.60
rest days4.135.13
scorer concentration0.270.32
season ppg1.411.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.806.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.6013.20
skill v1-0.860.00
sot against avg (last 5)4.801.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.20
squad age29.4831.04
state index-0.330.88
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.30
threat rate (last 5)0.180.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80