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Alanyaspor 1–1 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, Dec 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Ulusoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win46%2.12
Draw28%3.56
Karagumruk win26%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.2554%1.83
Karagumruk −0.2546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Jimmy Durmaz · Karagumruk
21'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Alanyaspor
57'⚽Efkan Bekiroğlu · Alanyaspor
70'⚽Aleksandar Pešić · Karagumruk
83'🟨Salih Dursun · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots13
5On target4
7Corners4
13Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.480.53
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
coach days25.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.781.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.16
dominance (last 5)0.450.41
elo1547.491588.78
elo momentum (last 5)-47.08-41.83
eye test v10.22-0.72
eye trend v10.39-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)64.9058.50
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.780.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.45
keeper form v10.650.78
league points36.0036.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank4.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)55.4053.00
rest days3.833.83
scorer concentration0.230.41
season ppg1.641.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.20
skill v11.130.65
sot against avg (last 5)5.007.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.40
squad age30.2930.28
state index-0.64-0.46
sterile dominance v10.850.86
threat rate (last 10)0.240.17
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80